macro · settles Sep 11, 2026
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)
AI Baseline40.0%refreshed yesterday
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Target
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCsettles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)7.0%▼ −6.0 pts
The August print is the last CPI before the September meeting; hot materially undercuts the first-cut case.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
7.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 7.0%