Events
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- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMCsettles Jul 29, 2026AI Baseline3.0%
- US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1settles Sep 1, 2026AI Baseline44.0%
- Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)settles Sep 4, 2026AI Baseline28.0%
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)settles Sep 11, 2026AI Baseline40.0%
- Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11settles Sep 11, 2026AI Baseline43.0%
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCsettles Sep 16, 2026AI Baseline7.0%
- Federal government shutdown begins October 1settles Oct 1, 2026AI Baseline40.0%
- Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)settles Oct 2, 2026AI Baseline32.0%
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)settles Oct 14, 2026AI Baseline40.0%
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMCsettles Oct 28, 2026AI Baseline14.0%
- Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negativesettles Oct 29, 2026AI Baseline15.0%
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)settles Nov 10, 2026AI Baseline40.0%
- A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1settles Dec 1, 2026AI Baseline4.0%
- SPY closes below $650 before December 1settles Dec 1, 2026AI Baseline22.0%
- Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)settles Dec 4, 2026AI Baseline35.0%
- Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4settles Dec 4, 2026AI Baseline46.0%
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMCsettles Dec 9, 2026AI Baseline18.0%