The network i Reading the graphEvery event in the registry and the conditional links between them. Catalysts on the left flow rightward to the events they move. Tap any event to set a what-if and watch the change ripple through everything downstream.
Tap an event to set a what-if probability, or a link to record your conditional read. ● yours◐ modeled◇ AI
Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug 34.0% → 42.6% (+9 pts) US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 14.0% → 8.0% (−6 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 1.0% → 0.5% (0 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 1.0% → 2.3% (+1 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 1.0% → 0.7% (0 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 9.0% → 93.6% (+85 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 9.0% → 5.3% (−4 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 9.0% → 16.8% (+8 pts) Shutdown begins · Oct 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 9.0% → 6.8% (−2 pts) US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 28.0% → 17.0% (−11 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 92.1% (+77 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 8.2% (−7 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 28.0% (+13 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 8.2% (−7 pts) Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 40.0% (+25 pts) Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 51.8% (+37 pts) SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 15.0% → 35.9% (+21 pts) US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1 US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 ◇ 47.0% Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11 Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 ◇ 14.0% Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release) Payrolls < 100k · Aug ◇ 74.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug ◇ 34.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC ◇ 1.0% Federal government shutdown begins October 1 Shutdown begins · Oct 1 ◇ 18.0% Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release) Payrolls < 100k · Sep ◇ 82.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep ◇ 36.0% Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 ◇ 28.0% Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative Q3 GDP negative · advance print ◇ 15.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC ◇ 9.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct ◇ 37.0% A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 ◇ 4.0% SPY closes below $650 before December 1 SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 ◇ 7.0% Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) Payrolls < 100k · Nov ◇ 55.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC ◇ 15.0% Edge color and thickness show the direction and size of each conditional shift—your read where you've estimated a link, the AI's otherwise. What-ifs aren't saved (share the URL to keep them); estimates you record on a link are saved to your reads.