The network i Reading the graphEvery event in the registry and the conditional links between them. Catalysts on the left flow rightward to the events they move. Tap any event to set a what-if and watch the change ripple through everything downstream.
Tap an event to set a what-if probability, or a link to record your conditional read. ● yours◐ modeled◇ AI
US-Iran nuclear deal · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 62.0% → 43.6% (−18 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 57.3% (+55 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 1.0% (−1 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 4.3% (+2 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 1.0% (−1 pts) Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 7.1% (+5 pts) Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 11.1% (+9 pts) SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 2.0% → 6.1% (+4 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 94.7% (−1 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 97.6% (+2 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 97.6% (+2 pts) Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 89.4% (−7 pts) SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 91.2% (−5 pts) Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 82.0% (−14 pts) Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 97.0% (+1 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 73.5% (−6 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 88.8% (+9 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 86.6% (+7 pts) Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 51.8% (−28 pts) SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 56.8% (−23 pts) Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC 80.0% → 36.9% (−43 pts) US-Iran nuclear deal agreed before December 1 US-Iran nuclear deal · by Dec 1 ◇ 7.0% Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC ◇ 99.0% Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 ◇ 62.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC ◇ 1.0% Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative Q3 GDP negative · advance print ◇ 1.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct ◇ 40.0% A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 ◇ 4.0% SPY closes below $650 before December 1 SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 ◇ 6.0% Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) Payrolls < 100k · Nov ◇ 55.0% Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC ◇ 96.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC ◇ 2.0% Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC Fed > 4.00% · Dec FOMC ◇ 80.0% Edge color and thickness show the direction and size of each conditional shift—your read where you've estimated a link, the AI's otherwise. What-ifs aren't saved (share the URL to keep them); estimates you record on a link are saved to your reads.