The network i Reading the graphEvery event in the registry and the conditional links between them. Catalysts on the left flow rightward to the events they move. Tap any event to set a what-if and watch the change ripple through everything downstream.
Tap an event to set a what-if probability, or a link to record your conditional read. ● yours◐ modeled◇ AI
Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug 40.0% → 49.0% (+9 pts) US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 43.0% → 28.6% (−14 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 7.0% → 92.4% (+85 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 7.0% → 3.7% (−3 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 7.0% → 15.0% (+8 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 7.0% → 4.7% (−2 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 14.0% → 96.0% (+82 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 14.0% → 8.4% (−6 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 14.0% → 25.0% (+11 pts) Shutdown begins · Oct 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 14.0% → 10.8% (−3 pts) US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 46.0% → 31.0% (−15 pts) Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 93.5% (+76 pts) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 10.0% (−8 pts) Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 32.6% (+15 pts) Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 10.0% (−8 pts) Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 45.3% (+27 pts) Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 57.2% (+39 pts) SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 18.0% → 41.1% (+23 pts) US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1 US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 ◇ 44.0% Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11 Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 ◇ 43.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC ◇ 3.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug ◇ 40.0% Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release) Payrolls < 100k · Aug ◇ 28.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC ◇ 7.0% Federal government shutdown begins October 1 Shutdown begins · Oct 1 ◇ 40.0% Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release) Payrolls < 100k · Sep ◇ 32.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep ◇ 40.0% Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 ◇ 46.0% Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative Q3 GDP negative · advance print ◇ 15.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC ◇ 14.0% Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct ◇ 40.0% A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 ◇ 4.0% SPY closes below $650 before December 1 SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 ◇ 22.0% Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) Payrolls < 100k · Nov ◇ 35.0% Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC ◇ 18.0% Edge color and thickness show the direction and size of each conditional shift—your read where you've estimated a link, the AI's otherwise. What-ifs aren't saved (share the URL to keep them); estimates you record on a link are saved to your reads.