The network

Every event in the registry and the conditional links between them. Catalysts on the left flow rightward to the events they move. Tap any event to set a what-if and watch the change ripple through everything downstream.

Tap an event to set a what-if probability, or a link to record your conditional read.● yours◐ modeled△ AI
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · May resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC 2.0% → 1.0% (−1 pts)Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 95.0% (+89 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Jun resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 3.0% (−3 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Jun resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 13.0% (+7 pts)Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug 40.0% → 49.0% (+9 pts)US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 32.0% → 20.0% (−12 pts)Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 13.0% → 96.0% (+83 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 13.0% → 7.0% (−6 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Aug resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 13.0% → 26.0% (+13 pts)Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 13.0% → 9.0% (−4 pts)Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 17.0% → 96.8% (+80 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 17.0% → 10.3% (−7 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 17.0% → 29.5% (+13 pts)Shutdown begins · Oct 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 17.0% → 13.2% (−4 pts)US–Iran ceasefire · thru Sep 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 28.0% → 17.0% (−11 pts)Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 95.6% (+71 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 14.5% (−11 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 42.3% (+17 pts)Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 14.5% (−11 pts)Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 55.7% (+31 pts)Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 67.0% (+42 pts)SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 25.0% → 51.4% (+26 pts)Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in May (June 10 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · May△ 44.0%US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1US–Iran ceasefire · thruSep 1△ 55.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC△ 2.0%Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)Payrolls < 100k · Jun△ 28.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Jun△ 45.0%Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11Brent ≥ $100 · Sep 11△ 32.0%Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)Payrolls < 100k · Aug△ 28.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC△ 6.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug△ 40.0%Federal government shutdown begins October 1Shutdown begins · Oct 1△ 40.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC△ 13.0%Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)Payrolls < 100k · Sep△ 32.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep△ 40.0%Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negativeQ3 GDP negative ·advance print△ 15.0%Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4△ 28.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC△ 17.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct△ 40.0%A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1Bank failure > $50B · byDec 1△ 4.0%SPY closes below $650 before December 1SPY < $650 · by Dec 1△ 18.0%Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)Payrolls < 100k · Nov△ 35.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC△ 25.0%

Edge color and thickness show the direction and size of each conditional shift—your read where you've estimated a link, the AI's otherwise. What-ifs aren't saved (share the URL to keep them); estimates you record on a link are saved to your reads.