The network

Every event in the registry and the conditional links between them. Catalysts on the left flow rightward to the events they move. Tap any event to set a what-if and watch the change ripple through everything downstream.

Tap an event to set a what-if probability, or a link to record your conditional read.● yours◐ modeled◇ AI
Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 1.0% → 59.8% (+59 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 1.0% → 0.6% (0 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 1.0% → 2.0% (+1 pts)Shutdown begins · Oct 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 1.0% → 0.7% (0 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Sep resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC 88.0% → 85.2% (−3 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC 88.0% → 93.4% (+5 pts)Shutdown begins · Oct 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC 88.0% → 81.2% (−7 pts)Fed > 3.75% · Sep FOMC resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC 88.0% → 98.9% (+11 pts)US-Iran nuclear deal · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 20.0% → 10.6% (−9 pts)Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 77.6% (+73 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 2.6% (−2 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 10.4% (+5 pts)Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 2.6% (−2 pts)Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 16.6% (+12 pts)Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 24.3% (+19 pts)SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC 5.0% → 14.3% (+9 pts)Payrolls < 100k · Nov resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 90.8% (−2 pts)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 95.8% (+3 pts)Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 95.8% (+3 pts)Q3 GDP negative · advance print resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 82.4% (−11 pts)SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 85.1% (−8 pts)Bank failure > $50B · by Dec 1 resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 71.5% (−21 pts)Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 93.0% → 98.9% (+6 pts)Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the September FOMCFed > 3.75% · Sep FOMC◇ 81.0%Federal government shutdown begins October 1Shutdown begins · Oct 1◇ 1.0%Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)Payrolls < 100k · Sep◇ 69.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep◇ 36.0%US-Iran nuclear deal agreed before December 1US-Iran nuclear deal ·by Dec 1◇ 6.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC◇ 1.0%Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMCFed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC◇ 88.0%Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negativeQ3 GDP negative ·advance print◇ 15.0%Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct◇ 37.0%A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1Bank failure > $50B · byDec 1◇ 4.0%SPY closes below $650 before December 1SPY < $650 · by Dec 1◇ 15.0%Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4Brent ≥ $100 · Dec 4◇ 20.0%Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)Payrolls < 100k · Nov◇ 55.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC◇ 1.0%Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMCFed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC◇ 93.0%Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC◇ 5.0%

Edge color and thickness show the direction and size of each conditional shift—your read where you've estimated a link, the AI's otherwise. What-ifs aren't saved (share the URL to keep them); estimates you record on a link are saved to your reads.