macro · settles Sep 11, 2026

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)

AI Baseline40.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 32.0%

Target

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 40.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)49.0%▲ +9.0 pts

Energy passthrough to core is partial and lagged; oil above 100 raises but does not dominate the core print.

refreshed yesterday

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49.0%
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Target AI Baseline 40.0%AI Projection 49.0%