macro · settles Sep 11, 2026
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
AI Baseline43.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)28.6%▼ −14.4 pts
Ceasefire holding through September unwinds most of the premium; collapse re-prices toward escalation.
refreshed 6 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
28.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 43.0%AI Projection 28.6%