macro · settles Sep 11, 2026
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
AI Baseline32.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is an event this one affects.
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)
settles Sep 11, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 49.0% ▲ +9.0 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC
settles Sep 16, 2026
Current 13.0%·AI if yes 9.0% ▼ −4.0 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release) settles Sep 11, 2026 | 40.0% | 49.0% ▲ +9.0 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC settles Sep 16, 2026 | 13.0% | 9.0% ▼ −4.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.