macro · settles Sep 11, 2026
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
AI Baseline32.0%refreshed yesterday
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)49.0%▲ +9.0 pts
Energy passthrough to core is partial and lagged; oil above 100 raises but does not dominate the core print.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
49.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 40.0%AI Projection 49.0%