macro · settles Sep 11, 2026

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

AI Baseline43.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
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Catalyst

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 43.0%

Target

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 40.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)49.0%▲ +9.0 pts

Energy passthrough to core is partial and lagged; oil above 100 raises but does not dominate the core print.

refreshed 6 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

49.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 40.0%AI Projection 49.0%