macro · settles Sep 11, 2026

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

AI Baseline32.0%refreshed yesterday
Run Scenarios

Apply your estimate

Catalyst

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 32.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)9.0%▼ −4.0 pts

Direct channel beyond CPI: at this horizon the inflation channel outweighs the growth drag, so high oil is net hawkish for September.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

9.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 9.0%