macro · settles Nov 10, 2026

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)

AI Baseline37.0%refreshed last week
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)

settles Nov 10, 2026 · AI 37.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 93.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)95.8%▲ +2.8 pts

Hot October core inflation would make a rate above 3.75% at year end close to the base case. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.37 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.5397 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.6871 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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95.8%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 93.0%AI Projection 95.8%