macro · settles Nov 10, 2026
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)
AI Baseline48.0%refreshed 3 hours ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 0.5% ▼ −0.5 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 98.0%·AI if yes 98.8% ▲ +0.8 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 85.0%·AI if yes 91.8% ▲ +6.8 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.5% ▼ −0.5 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 98.0% | 98.8% ▲ +0.8 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 85.0% | 91.8% ▲ +6.8 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.