macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

AI Baseline4.0%refreshed last week

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Catalyst

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 93.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)71.5%▼ −21.5 pts

The failure of a bank this size is a financial-stability event, and the Committee's consistent response to one has been to ease rather than to hold a restrictive rate. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.04 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.6650 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7562 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

71.5%

0%100%

Target AI Baseline 93.0%AI Projection 71.5%