A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

The failure of a bank this size is a financial-stability event, and the Committee's consistent response to one has been to ease rather than to hold a restrictive rate. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.04 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.6650 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7562 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?