macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

AI Baseline4.0%refreshed last month

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Catalyst

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 98.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)90.3%▼ −7.7 pts

The failure of a bank this size is a financial-stability event, and the Committee's consistent response to one has been to ease rather than to hold a restrictive rate. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.04 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.6650 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7562 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 3 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

90.3%

0%100%

Target AI Baseline 98.0%AI Projection 90.3%