macro · settles Dec 1, 2026
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1
AI Baseline4.0%refreshed last week
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 5.0%·AI if yes 24.3% ▲ +19.3 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 93.0%·AI if yes 71.5% ▼ −21.5 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 5.0% | 24.3% ▲ +19.3 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 93.0% | 71.5% ▼ −21.5 pts | Click to add |
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