macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

AI Baseline4.0%refreshed last week
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Catalyst

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 5.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)24.3%▲ +19.3 pts

Acute bank stress historically forces easing regardless of the inflation picture.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

24.3%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 5.0%AI Projection 24.3%