macro · settles Dec 1, 2026
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1
AI Baseline4.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)67.0%▲ +42.0 pts
Acute bank stress historically forces easing regardless of the inflation picture.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
67.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 67.0%