macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

AI Baseline4.0%refreshed last month
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Catalyst

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)5.8%▲ +4.8 pts

Acute bank stress historically forces easing regardless of the inflation picture.

refreshed 3 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

5.8%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 5.8%