macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline93.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)71.5%▼ −21.5 pts
The failure of a bank this size is a financial-stability event, and the Committee's consistent response to one has been to ease rather than to hold a restrictive rate. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.04 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.6650 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7562 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 12 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
71.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 93.0%AI Projection 71.5%