macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline96.0%refreshed 4 days ago
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 55.0%·AI if yes 94.7% ▼ −1.3 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)
settles Nov 10, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 97.6% ▲ +1.6 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 62.0%·AI if yes 97.6% ▲ +1.6 pts·You Click to add
Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative
settles Oct 29, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 89.4% ▼ −6.6 pts·You Click to add
SPY closes below $650 before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 6.0%·AI if yes 91.2% ▼ −4.8 pts·You Click to add
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 4.0%·AI if yes 82.0% ▼ −14.0 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 99.0%·AI if yes 97.0% ▲ +1.0 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) settles Dec 4, 2026 | 55.0% | 94.7% ▼ −1.3 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) settles Nov 10, 2026 | 40.0% | 97.6% ▲ +1.6 pts | Click to add |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 settles Dec 4, 2026 | 62.0% | 97.6% ▲ +1.6 pts | Click to add |
| Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative settles Oct 29, 2026 | 1.0% | 89.4% ▼ −6.6 pts | Click to add |
| SPY closes below $650 before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 91.2% ▼ −4.8 pts | Click to add |
| A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 82.0% ▼ −14.0 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 99.0% | 97.0% ▲ +1.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.