Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

Hot October core inflation would make a rate above 3.75% at year end close to the base case. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.37 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.5397 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.6871 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?