Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

Brent at or above $100 in December would mean the energy impulse persisted rather than faded, which is the scenario in which the higher rate is held. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.2 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.5397 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7175 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?