macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline96.0%refreshed 4 days ago
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)89.4%▼ −6.6 pts
An outright contraction in the third quarter would put the Committee close to even between holding a restrictive rate and beginning to unwind it. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.15 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.0460 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7824 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 4 days ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
89.4%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 96.0%AI Projection 89.4%