Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

An outright contraction in the third quarter would put the Committee close to even between holding a restrictive rate and beginning to unwind it. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.15 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.0460 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7824 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?