Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

An equity correction of this depth tightens financial conditions on the Committee's behalf and weakens, without removing, the case for holding above 3.75%. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.18 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.8453 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7817 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?