Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC

A receivership of a bank with $50 billion or more in assets would be a financial-stability event that makes a further increase substantially less likely. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.04 for the source, a conditional of 0.40 implies a coefficient of -1.9218 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8375 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 9 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?