macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline64.0%refreshed 9 hours ago
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 55.0%·AI if yes 55.3% ▼ −8.7 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)
settles Nov 10, 2026
Current 48.0%·AI if yes 77.8% ▲ +13.8 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 55.0%·AI if yes 74.1% ▲ +10.1 pts·You Click to add
Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative
settles Oct 29, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 32.3% ▼ −31.7 pts·You Click to add
SPY closes below $650 before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 3.0%·AI if yes 36.9% ▼ −27.1 pts·You Click to add
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 4.0%·AI if yes 20.6% ▼ −43.4 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) settles Dec 4, 2026 | 55.0% | 55.3% ▼ −8.7 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) settles Nov 10, 2026 | 48.0% | 77.8% ▲ +13.8 pts | Click to add |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 settles Dec 4, 2026 | 55.0% | 74.1% ▲ +10.1 pts | Click to add |
| Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative settles Oct 29, 2026 | 1.0% | 32.3% ▼ −31.7 pts | Click to add |
| SPY closes below $650 before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 36.9% ▼ −27.1 pts | Click to add |
| A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 20.6% ▼ −43.4 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.