Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC

A core CPI reading of 0.3% or more for October, released a month before the December meeting, would strengthen the case for a further increase above 4.00%. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.52 for the source, a conditional of 0.90 implies a coefficient of +0.6809 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7333 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 10 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?