Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC

A close below 650 on SPY before December would mark a drawdown of roughly a sixth from current levels, a tightening of financial conditions that argues against a further increase. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.05 for the source, a conditional of 0.60 implies a coefficient of -1.1109 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8316 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 9 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?