Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC

Brent settling at or above $100 in early December would signal persistent energy-driven inflation pressure and make a further increase more likely. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.40 for the source, a conditional of 0.88 implies a coefficient of +0.4761 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7800 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 10 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?