macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline64.0%refreshed 9 hours ago
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)32.3%▼ −31.7 pts
A negative advance estimate of third-quarter GDP would be a sharp growth shock arguing against a further increase, though inflation could still keep one on the table. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.01 for the source, a conditional of 0.55 implies a coefficient of -1.3157 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8227 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 9 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
32.3%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 64.0%AI Projection 32.3%