macro · settles Jun 17, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

AI Baseline2.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in May (June 10 release)

settles Jun 10, 2026 · AI 44.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

settles Jun 17, 2026 · AI 2.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)1.0%▼ −1.0 pts

A hot May print all but seals the June hold; a cool one barely opens the door.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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Target AI Baseline 2.0%AI Projection 1.0%