macro · settles Jun 17, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

AI Baseline2.0%refreshed yesterday
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Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · May resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC 2.0% → 1.0% (−1 pts)▼ −1 ptsFed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 95.0% (+89 pts)▲ +89 ptsFed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC AI Baseline 2.0% — The AI's live standalone estimate that this event resolves YES, informed by market prices where a market exists. It is not computed from the arrows—those show how it would move, not where it comes from.Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMCAI 2.0% · Jun 17, 2026Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in May (June 10 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · May ↗AI 44.0% · Jun 10, 2026Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC ↗AI 6.0% · Jul 29, 2026

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

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