Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

This event has no modeled dependencies yet—nothing flows into or out of it. As the graph grows, its catalysts and the events it influences will appear here.

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

Read the methodology