macro · settles Sep 16, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 1.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)59.8%▲ +58.8 pts

Ratchet; a September hold pushes most cut probability mass to December rather than October.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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59.8%
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Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 59.8%