macro · settles Sep 16, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC
AI Baseline13.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC
settles Jul 29, 2026
Current 6.0%·AI if yes 96.0% ▲ +83.0 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)
settles Sep 11, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 7.0% ▼ −6.0 pts·You Click to add
Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)
settles Sep 4, 2026
Current 28.0%·AI if yes 26.0% ▲ +13.0 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
settles Sep 11, 2026
Current 32.0%·AI if yes 9.0% ▼ −4.0 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC settles Jul 29, 2026 | 6.0% | 96.0% ▲ +83.0 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release) settles Sep 11, 2026 | 40.0% | 7.0% ▼ −6.0 pts | Click to add |
| Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release) settles Sep 4, 2026 | 28.0% | 26.0% ▲ +13.0 pts | Click to add |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11 settles Sep 11, 2026 | 32.0% | 9.0% ▼ −4.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.