macro · settles Sep 16, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

AI Baseline13.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)7.0%▼ −6.0 pts

The August print is the last CPI before the September meeting; hot materially undercuts the first-cut case.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

7.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 7.0%
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Aug → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC — Consequitur