macro · settles Sep 16, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

AI Baseline7.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)

settles Sep 4, 2026 · AI 28.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 7.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)15.0%▲ +8.0 pts

Weak August payrolls roughly double September cut odds against the re-struck marginal.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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15.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 7.0%AI Projection 15.0%