macro · settles Sep 16, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC
AI Baseline13.0%refreshed yesterday
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Target
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCsettles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)9.0%▼ −4.0 pts
Direct channel beyond CPI: at this horizon the inflation channel outweighs the growth drag, so high oil is net hawkish for September.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
9.0%
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Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 9.0%