macro · settles Oct 28, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

AI Baseline17.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 17.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)96.8%▲ +79.8 pts

Ratchet; a September hold pushes most cut probability mass to December rather than October.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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96.8%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 17.0%AI Projection 96.8%