macro · settles Oct 28, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
AI Baseline17.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC
settles Sep 16, 2026
Current 13.0%·AI if yes 96.8% ▲ +79.8 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)
settles Oct 14, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 10.3% ▼ −6.7 pts·You Click to add
Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)
settles Oct 2, 2026
Current 32.0%·AI if yes 29.5% ▲ +12.5 pts·You Click to add
Federal government shutdown begins October 1
settles Oct 1, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 13.2% ▼ −3.8 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC settles Sep 16, 2026 | 13.0% | 96.8% ▲ +79.8 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release) settles Oct 14, 2026 | 40.0% | 10.3% ▼ −6.7 pts | Click to add |
| Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release) settles Oct 2, 2026 | 32.0% | 29.5% ▲ +12.5 pts | Click to add |
| Federal government shutdown begins October 1 settles Oct 1, 2026 | 40.0% | 13.2% ▼ −3.8 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.