macro · settles Oct 28, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

AI Baseline17.0%refreshed yesterday

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Catalyst

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

settles Oct 1, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 17.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)13.2%▼ −3.8 pts

Contested sign via the data-blackout channel: a shutdown delays the releases the Fed needs to justify moving, so cut odds drop despite the growth hit.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

13.2%

0%100%

Target AI Baseline 17.0%AI Projection 13.2%