macro · settles Oct 28, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 12 hours ago

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Catalyst

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

settles Oct 1, 2026 · AI 1.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)0.7%▼ −0.3 pts

Contested sign via the data-blackout channel: a shutdown delays the releases the Fed needs to justify moving, so cut odds drop despite the growth hit.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

0.7%

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Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 0.7%