macro · settles Oct 28, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
AI Baseline14.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)25.0%▲ +11.0 pts
Weak September payrolls into the October meeting.
refreshed 6 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
25.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 14.0%AI Projection 25.0%