macro · settles Oct 29, 2026
Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative
AI Baseline15.0%refreshed last week
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)82.4%▼ −10.6 pts
An outright contraction in the third quarter would put the Committee close to even between holding a restrictive rate and beginning to unwind it. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.15 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.0460 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7824 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 12 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
82.4%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 93.0%AI Projection 82.4%