macro · settles Oct 29, 2026

Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative

AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 2 hours ago
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Catalyst

Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative

settles Oct 29, 2026 · AI 1.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 98.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)94.5%▼ −3.5 pts

An outright contraction in the third quarter would put the Committee close to even between holding a restrictive rate and beginning to unwind it. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.15 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -1.0460 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7824 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 2 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

94.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 98.0%AI Projection 94.5%