Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative

A negative advance estimate of third-quarter GDP would be a sharp growth shock arguing against a further increase, though inflation could still keep one on the table. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.01 for the source, a conditional of 0.55 implies a coefficient of -1.3157 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8227 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?