macro · settles Jul 2, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)
AI Baseline28.0%refreshed yesterday
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)13.0%▲ +7.0 pts
A sub-100k June print is the one data point that could pull a cut forward to July.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
13.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 6.0%AI Projection 13.0%