macro · settles Jul 29, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

AI Baseline3.0%refreshed 5 days ago
Run Scenarios
Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 7.0% → 92.4% (+85 pts)▲ +85 ptsFed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC AI Baseline 3.0% — The AI's live standalone estimate that this event resolves YES, informed by market prices where a market exists. It is not computed from the arrows—those show how it would move, not where it comes from.Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMCAI 3.0% · Jul 29, 2026Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC ↗AI 7.0% · Sep 16, 2026

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

Read the methodology