macro · settles Jul 29, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

AI Baseline6.0%refreshed yesterday
Run Scenarios
Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 95.0% (+89 pts)▲ +89 ptsCore CPI ≥ 0.3% · Jun resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 3.0% (−3 pts)▼ −3 ptsPayrolls < 100k · Jun resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC 6.0% → 13.0% (+7 pts)▲ +7 ptsFed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC 13.0% → 96.0% (+83 pts)▲ +83 ptsFed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC AI Baseline 6.0% — The AI's live standalone estimate that this event resolves YES, informed by market prices where a market exists. It is not computed from the arrows—those show how it would move, not where it comes from.Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMCAI 6.0% · Jul 29, 2026Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Jun FOMC ↗AI 2.0% · Jun 17, 2026Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release)Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Jun ↗AI 45.0% · Jul 14, 2026Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)Payrolls < 100k · Jun ↗AI 28.0% · Jul 2, 2026Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Sep FOMC ↗AI 13.0% · Sep 16, 2026

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

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