macro · settles Sep 4, 2026

Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)

AI Baseline28.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)

settles Sep 4, 2026 · AI 28.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)26.0%▲ +13.0 pts

Weak August payrolls roughly double September cut odds against the re-struck marginal.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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26.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 26.0%