macro · settles Oct 2, 2026

Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)

AI Baseline32.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)

settles Oct 2, 2026 · AI 32.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 17.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)29.5%▲ +12.5 pts

Weak September payrolls into the October meeting.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

29.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 17.0%AI Projection 29.5%