macro · settles Oct 2, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)
AI Baseline69.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 2.0% ▲ +1.0 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 88.0%·AI if yes 85.2% ▼ −2.8 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 1.0% | 2.0% ▲ +1.0 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 88.0% | 85.2% ▼ −2.8 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.