Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)

A November payrolls print below 100k, released five days before the December meeting, would weaken the case for a further increase, though most of the Committee's path will be set by then. Against a marginal of 0.82 for the target and 0.55 for the source, a conditional of 0.76 implies a coefficient of -0.3637 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8933 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?