macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed 2 months ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 2.0%·AI if yes 4.3% ▲ +2.3 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 96.0%·AI if yes 94.7% ▼ −1.3 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 80.0%·AI if yes 73.5% ▼ −6.5 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 2.0% | 4.3% ▲ +2.3 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 96.0% | 94.7% ▼ −1.3 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 80.0% | 73.5% ▼ −6.5 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.