macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed last month
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 2.2% ▲ +1.2 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 98.0%·AI if yes 97.3% ▼ −0.7 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 85.0%·AI if yes 79.8% ▼ −5.2 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 1.0% | 2.2% ▲ +1.2 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 98.0% | 97.3% ▼ −0.7 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 85.0% | 79.8% ▼ −5.2 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.