macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed last month
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)2.2%▲ +1.2 pts
Weak November payrolls four days before the December meeting make a cut better than a coin flip against the re-struck anchor.
refreshed 2 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
2.2%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 2.2%