Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)

A weak November print would argue against the rate still sitting above 3.75% at year end, but most of the 2026 path is set by December. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.55 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.2922 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8133 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?