macro · settles Dec 4, 2026

Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)

AI Baseline55.0%refreshed last month

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Catalyst

settles Dec 4, 2026 · AI 55.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 98.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)97.3%▼ −0.7 pts

A weak November print would argue against the rate still sitting above 3.75% at year end, but most of the 2026 path is set by December. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.55 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.2922 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8133 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 2 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

97.3%

0%100%

Target AI Baseline 98.0%AI Projection 97.3%