macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed last week
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)90.8%▼ −2.2 pts
A weak November print would argue against the rate still sitting above 3.75% at year end, but most of the 2026 path is set by December. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.55 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.2922 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.8133 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 12 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
90.8%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 93.0%AI Projection 90.8%