macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

SPY closes below $650 before December 1

AI Baseline4.0%refreshed 2 hours ago
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Catalyst

SPY closes below $650 before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 98.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)95.5%▼ −2.5 pts

An equity correction of this depth tightens financial conditions on the Committee's behalf and weakens, without removing, the case for holding above 3.75%. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.18 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.8453 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.7817 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 2 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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95.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 98.0%AI Projection 95.5%
SPY < $650 · by Dec 1 → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC — Consequitur