macro · settles Dec 1, 2026
SPY closes below $650 before December 1
AI Baseline4.0%refreshed 3 hours ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 3.1% ▲ +2.1 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 98.0%·AI if yes 95.5% ▼ −2.5 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 85.0%·AI if yes 65.1% ▼ −19.9 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 1.0% | 3.1% ▲ +2.1 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 98.0% | 95.5% ▼ −2.5 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 85.0% | 65.1% ▼ −19.9 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.