macro · settles Dec 1, 2026
SPY closes below $650 before December 1
AI Baseline6.0%refreshed 4 days ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 2.0%·AI if yes 6.1% ▲ +4.1 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 96.0%·AI if yes 91.2% ▼ −4.8 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC
settles Dec 9, 2026
Current 80.0%·AI if yes 56.8% ▼ −23.2 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 2.0% | 6.1% ▲ +4.1 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 96.0% | 91.2% ▼ −4.8 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 4.00% after the December FOMC settles Dec 9, 2026 | 80.0% | 56.8% ▼ −23.2 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.