macro · settles Dec 1, 2026

SPY closes below $650 before December 1

AI Baseline22.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
Run Scenarios

Apply your estimate

Catalyst

SPY closes below $650 before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 22.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 18.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)41.1%▲ +23.1 pts

The contested edge: does the Fed put exist at current inflation? Seeded toward yes-it-does; disagreement expected.

refreshed 6 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

41.1%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 18.0%AI Projection 41.1%